|
An apt description of the Oilers current lineup |
After sucking marrow at the bottom of the NHL bone pile, the Oilers have finally (for the moment) climbed out of the 30th spot to the clearly more respectable
29th overall spot. The win also gives the Oilers 7 of their last 10, and not only against jobber teams; they have faced teams battling for their playoff lives and looked good doing it. Explanations as for the Oilers recent success are not easy, especially considering we've recently lost almost all of our high end offence due to injury or trade. You could go with the trusty 'the call-ups are stepping up because of the opportunity afforded them' but I'd say it's just as likely this is a natural fluctuation of both the Oilers execution and the one-ice puckluck.
It's pretty clear that after being basically a 35% win-rate team for most of the season, suddenly doubling that to 70% is as likely to be a function of luck as it is ability, but certainly the Oilers have been upping their RPM's. They have been simplifying their game to match the incoming minor league talent - it's almost like enforcing simplicity in everyone's game has made even the veterans more effective as well.
In terms of the victory vs. the Avs, there were plenty of players who had strong games, from the goaltender on up to Captain Corsi. Dubnyk has just been a ceaseless rock face for something like 127 hours now, and the small pessimist inside me is trying to find chinks in the Dubnyk progression-project to help deflate the notion that he can be a number 1 next year. So far I haven't really figured it out. He's a young, inexperienced goaltender who not only has been playing like a veteran, but also playing well too. His .914 ranks 24th in the league, and I'd say this is also impressive since he's putting that kind of number up on a team that is 29th in goal differential. If the Oilers could receive consistent .910+ goaltending next year, it certainly would go a long way towards fighting for a playoff spot (something unlikely but certainly possible).
On the other end of the ice, Elliot is the picture of inconsistency. His .893 ranks 42nd in the league, and for some unexplainable reason, this is a guy who has gotten 47 starts this year. Budaj is not much better (39th in the league), but riding Elliot is a total mystery to me - sort of like the Anderson trade was. Anderson is a guy with a proven track record of being able to hit a high water mark, at least for a time, and this is something that Elliot has never really done (.909 in 57 gp last year was alright I guess, but not spectacular).
The Oilers two main offensive lines looked pretty good all night, especially he who turns it on when the season is over. Like we've seen countless times before, when Gagner is late in the season, he can seemingly access another gear. This of course begs the obvious question: why not earlier? We're probably entering how to get the caramilk in the caramilk bar territory, so I'll leave it at that for now, but regardless he played a strong game on the night. Gagner, Jones, and Omark were cycling the puck well all night, and combined for 5 shots and 2-4-6 +2. I know that Ryan Jones has been sporting an ugly Corsi Rel (-11.7, 14th among forwards), but his shooting percentage is only 1.5% over his (short) career average, perhaps indicating he can be a high percentage NHL shooter over his travels in the big league. He's also been paired with guys who don't outshoot a lot, so perhaps we'll see this value migrate north as long as he maintains his spot higher in the rotation.
PRV played a strong game, which included a great cross ice pass to Horcoff for his one timer goal. Speaking of Corsi Rel, PRV was at -7.5 on January 21, and he has managed to get that mark to -1.5, indicating he is starting to drive possession a bit more. Surely that's been helped with him playing with better linemates since Jan. 21, but I also think that observationally he has continued to mature as an NHLer, and we are finally seeing a bit less of PRV flubbing pucks in the offensive zone. His ability to move on the ice really reminds me of Hossa, but with a bit lower end technical skill when the puck is on his stick. I'm not sure how much improvement we will see in this regard over his career but at the very least he will be a bigger, stronger Marchant which should allow him to best Marchant's 20-40-60 season in his prime.
Thankfully there is some decent padding between 29th and 28th (5 points), so if the Oilers decide to go on a bit of a winning streak there is still some space before they really start screwing themselves over draft-pick wise.