The Predators are probably a team that has been hurt by their own success. Barry Trotz carved out multiple successful seasons from oftentimes journeymen rosters bolstered with intelligent defencemen draft decisions. As a result of their consistently above mediocre results, the Preds have been a team that has usually been bereft of high-end talent, especially in terms of scoring prowess, often obtained by new teams via the draft.
When a team has zero elite offensive talents, often times you wonder how they would ever win the cup. Regardless of questioning their ability to capture Lord Stanley's silverware, the 2014 version of the predators with Laviolette at the helm and a couple of mercenary centers was more than enough to firmly put the streaking Oilers in their place.
The corsi graph tells a lot about the flow of the game: the Oilers were getting marginally outplayed possession-wise until the winning goal bulged the twine. Even at that point though, the Oilers were within 3-4 shot attempts at sawing off possession. Unfortunately the Oilers rode the scoring effect wave (the proven concept that teams with leads let off the gas) to begin taking over the game, which became less surprising when the Preds went up by 3. Specifically - as highlighted by the Sportsnet crew - the Nashville dmen were moving the puck quickly and smartly out of their own graveyard into the central swamp. Something which the Oilers struggled with right from the start. As Eakins said, the passes were just a bit off, and the lack of cleanliness in their own zone ultimately cost them.
The game started off with another disallowed Oilers goal against, and this one wasn't without some controversy. It seemed it was disallowed because of intent to blow (which was almost the title of this post), but mine eyes also spied that a NSH forward pushed on Scrivens' trapper which might have contributed; regardless it was a gee-whoa moment that should have signaled to the Oilers bench to get their shit together. Instead, they shambled around in a pre-Halloween stagger: passes fit for Frankenstein, and general chaos in the execution around their own net.
Two goals in the early second built the coffin and put the Oilers corpse in it, and a Weber blast early in the third nailed it shut. Unfortunately I've written half of the post by the time my mind decided to switch from a "sad cowboy" theme to a Halloween theme, you'll just have to stick it out now. Anyways, as far as specific thoughts, check them after the hop:
Thursday, October 30, 2014
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Edmonton Oilers Postgame 9: Block Québécois
Marriage made in Canada. This is also block shaped. |
That's when the Oilers hounds took over, spearheading a 21 block effort by the blue guys. They hacked and chopped and swore their way out of Montreal pressure shift after shift. Some of the play was downright oogly in the Oilers zone, however they never really gave that puck-on-a-platter chance that they seemed to earlier in the year. Montreal had chances - mostly the kind of bouncing, bunched, and half-baked chances that had legs in the way or a square goaltender. You don't want to take away from Scrivens effort at all - he played a wonderfully composed game - but you'd be hard pressed to remember a single outrageous stop Scrivens made.
Aside from that, it was the German Gretzky's boundary game, and on the other side lies at least a 40 game audition (the UFA-year-burned-barrier). Even though at the time of this writing we haven't heard anything, I would guess there is zero suspense in this regard. LD is here to stay, and while his game wasn't flashy, I honestly think Leon has skated better the last 3 games. He's reached a level that gives you some comfort that he will be able to keep his German designed engine driving results.
In terms of the Oilers offence, Pouliot and Yak were the goal scorers. Pouliot's effort was a sweet little dash, deke, and deposit from a Canadiens fall and a nice Arco pass. Yak jammed the biscuit in off a missed shot and a shovel pass. A little glitz, a little garbage, but most importantly the "third" line got off the snide and provided some incredibly welcome secondary scoring. We know we can count on the 6 million dollar kids most nights, so any contributions from forwards 4 through 9 is going to give the Oilers more double v's than we've seen in the last half decade.
Finally, let's all remember this key point: the Oilers are 19th in the league overall, and 9th in the west. Unless everyone is happy with the 13th overall pick and an extra two months to contemplate the draft, there is a lot of work to still be done. The proud blue you can celebrate when we actually rise above the dregs of the league.
Some individuals after the hop.
Labels:
2014-2015,
Edmonton Oilers,
Montreal Canadiens,
Postgame
Monday, October 27, 2014
Oilers Arrows: Part I
With the Oilers roughly 10% into the season, I felt like it was about time to evaluate the performance of each player on the team, and the direction they were trending. Without further ado, your 10% complete Edmonton Oilers (all numbers below are for 5v5):
Legend:
Status Quo: |
| Good Performance: |
| Bad Performance: |
|
Labels:
2014-2015,
Analysis,
Edmonton Oilers
Saturday, October 25, 2014
Edmonton Oilers Postgame 8: Fresh Meat
The Oilers took a bite out of the floundering Hurricanes |
To put it bluntly, the opponent was a perfect storm of suck, the kind of softball lob that Pancakes Penner is used to cranking out of the park at his local beer league game. Thankfully to those bleeding viscous oil, the Edmonton team's skill was the edge needed versus Carolina's raw desperation. While they didn't hit it out of the park, they more or less won an evenly matched game by demonstrating a commitment to an unchanging game plan. They also had the benefit of one of the worst missed calls I can remember, a Benoit Pouliot lumberjack-job to the wrist of Brian "Who's That" Bellmore. It was the kind of axe-stroke that leaves two pieces of wood afterwards, and how the striped overseers missed it was only explainable by the cosmic karma that missed the Canucks hand-pass-for-a-goal earlier in the season. Regardless, Eberle did the right thing: kept playing, and his quick snipe was integral in the end result.
The victory was capped off by the Deutschland dangler, Leon potting the rebound from a AAA Alberta beef offensive chance. Leon's reaction was wonderful; you could see the chains of expectation evaporate as he smilingly whale-flopped on top of captain Ference. He needed that boost I think, and so did the Oilers management. Earlier TSN's Bobby Mac had laid out an interesting scenario where the Oilers play him past the 9 game mark but send him down before the 40 game mark. The second deadline is the one that burns off a UFA year for the player. Waiting 40 games before deciding accomplishes two obvious things: gives Draisaitl plenty of time to destroy doubt or drive his demotion, and gives MacT time to find the appropriate 2C on the marketplace. Regardless, it was a feel good moment for the kid and for Oil fans in general looking for some positive energy at the start of the up-and-down season.
The corsi chart from the game shows an inexorable trend towards more offensive zone time for the Oilers and after the scoring started, it seemed like the see-saw steadily tilted more towards the Hurricanes end of the ice. There was still the fumes of desperation powering the Oilers game as well (as there should be), and combined with the fact that the Oilers have a more mobile D and skilled O, was enough for a 6-3 victory.
Plus and minuses doled out after the hop.
Labels:
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Carolina Hurricanes,
Edmonton Oilers,
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Thursday, October 23, 2014
Edmonton Oilers Postgame 7: Two it for Scrivvy
"I don't want it to come across that we're thrilled where we are right now" |
- Ben Scrivens postgame quote |
In case you haven't picked up on it, Ben "The Professor" Scrivens is a thoughtful, even-keel guy who manages to contribute sound-bytes worthy of a Cornell grad. After the game he was quick to riposte the anime-eyed reporters from taking to much from his, or the teams performance. The record still stands at 2-4-1, and the Oilers still sport a 26th ranked points percentage of .357 - coincidentally the caliber of self-inflicted gun-shot wound Oilers brain pans will be sampling if the number stays that low.
For now, we can revel in the slight relief that the Oilers brass loses a little pressure to do something quickly (see: definition for stupid), and perhaps more importantly, gives the team the charge of confidence it needs to say, play with a lead like they weren't juggling a baby and a hand grenade. It was my impression that the Oilers defenders were not willing to risk maintained puck possession in their own zone for most of the third, which lead to them making hasty and hopeful passes. A more confident squad adapted to winning might instead skate pucks out of their own zone and make shorter, smarter outlets.
Some thoughts from the game after the hop.
Labels:
2014-2015,
Edmonton Oilers,
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Washington Capitals
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Edmonton Oilers Postgame 6: Release (the hounds)
Remind you of our 4th line? |
Thus when Ondrej Palat's poorly performed pass clattered off Jordan Eberle's stick high in the Tampa Bay defensive zone, the huddled fan base inhaled deeply. It offered a timely bit of retribution and restitution for the unfathomably awful Oilers season start. Moments later, Hopkins sent the puck zipping inside the post, and the crowd, the bench, and the kids all let out the primal scream of release. Sure, there was another 3 and change to go, but the Oilers slammed the storm shutters closed and the Stamkos-support-structure managed zero shots on goal and a single (corsi) attempt.
I will preach over and over that the win was merely a product of the Oilers playing a much better overall puck possession game. As Eakins said, the results are the only thing that matter, but the best way to generate results is playing a strong puck possession game, which the Oilers - right now- are doing. Moving Marincin into the shutdown role has obviously helped Schultz for obvious reasons: less minutes played against weaker opposition. It was the first time all season, I think, that Jultz didn't have the highest TOI amongst the Dmen. His 19:48 trailed Ference by 3 seconds, and trailed Jeff Petry by 2:43. Ference playing almost 20 minutes I can really do without, but it signals a change from Eakins in that he recognizes that Schultz probably can't be the do-it-all #1 guy.
The first line did a bunch of heavy lifting tonight, with Hall's penalty shot the injection of fire every oil-drop-blue vein needed to give belief. It was his third attempt, and he made it look very easy. Eberle had a bunch of great chances in the game that Bishop stoned him on, but his intercept and pass to Hopkins for the win really cemented the performance for the top line as a whole. Considering the middle part of the lineup-sandwich has been lean-scoring beef so far, our success has been dictated by the top and bottom slices of the sandwich (see below).
Finally, one of the keys to success continues to be the "Release the hounds" (4th) line, being sicced on every opposing teams top lines, buried deep in the bunkers of their own warzone. Not only are they preventing good players getting offence, they are also getting good cycles in the opposition zone and forcing everyone on the ice to play their version of chippy, bang-bus hockey. That energy helps drive the team, and more importantly, allows easier match ups to cycle through the rest of the lineup. It was a statement at the beginning of the year that the Gordon line would perform this duty (shutdown and shit shoveling), and they've been doing it with an impressive intensity and competency. It's been the best fourth line the Oilers have iced since the Brodziak and Glencross days. The three players are splattering mud on the oppositions offensive poetry.
Conclusion after the hop.
Labels:
2014-2015,
Edmonton Oilers,
Postgame,
Tempa Bay Lightning
Friday, October 17, 2014
Edmonton Oilers Postgame 5: No Rest for the Wicked
The playoff rock grows larger... |
Tonight's game was about as bittersweet as a loss could be. The played the Canucks very evenly through the entirety of the game (28-30 on the puck ticker), and one missed assignment (was it Purcell, was it Fayne?) led to a second period goal by Vrbata that ultimately sunk the Oilers. Scrivens had a stand-out bounce-back game, and Marincin stepped into the blue line like all the statletes knew he could. I said bitter too: the top line barely cycled, forwards missed obvious chances, and the PP only offered up a mediocre 6 shots in 4 full opportunities. Overall, the commitment to team defence, and the Oilers assembling a healthy - and in this writers opinion - correct lineup is a small first step to exorcising the nasty-bad losers JuJu. At which point maybe the brownie points earned tonight can be exchanged for real points, arithmetic the Oilers are becoming desperate to realize.
There are 6 games left of this lazer crucial home stand (adding a lazer to anything makes it important), and we already need to start crunching the numbers here. Last year Dallas squeaked into the big show with 91 points, and a point percentage of 55.5%. The Oilers are currently at a point percentage of 10%. To reach a point percentage of 55.5 (or higher) at the end of the home stand, we would need 0.555 * 11 (games) * 2 (points per game) = ~12 points at the end of it. Subtract the point we've already gained (launch the fireworks), and that means 11 points in 6 games. It doesn't take a degree in brick science to figure out that there are only 12 points available over the rest of the home stand. Which means, ultimately, that everyone should start contemplating the real possibility that the #Oilers will miss the playoffs once again.
Let me be clear: virtually every news outlet, guide, and "expert" placed the Oilers on the outside looking in, and any who throw a coin in the wishing oil-well are likely to be burned once again. I can deal with missing the playoffs. It's an incredibly tough division, in a tough conference, with a still incredibly young team. What I can't stand, what we won't stand is the Oilers being a bad team. If they play more games like tonight, I think we will sample just as much success as failure.
And god it will be sweet if this team can ever realize it's potential. It would like being tortured by al-Qaeda for 8 years, only to finally be rescued by loyal sex-robot slaves made of pure gold. Or something.
Some players and a conclusion after the hop.
Labels:
2014-2015,
Edmonton Oilers,
Postgame,
Vancouver Canucks
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Edmonton Oilers Postgame 4: Touchdown!
You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes. |
Stat | Value | League Rank |
---|---|---|
Points | 1 | 30/30 |
Goals/Game | 2.75 | 20/30 |
Goals Against/Game | 5.5 | 30/30 |
Goal Differential | -12 | 30/30 |
5v5 Goals For/Against | 0.4 | 30/30 |
PP% | 27.3 | 10/30 |
PK% | 68.8 | 26/30 |
5v5 CorsiFor% | 55.2 | 4/30 |
5v5 Shooting% | 5.88 | 24/30 |
5v5 Save% | 83.2 | 29/30 |
The Oilers even strength defending has been like a Gasoline & Matches Party in a fireworks factory. The team has been incredibly unlucky as well, their 5v5 PDO is dead last in the league at 89.03. In retrospect, at the end of last season the lowest value was Florida's 98.02. The Oilers tenders will not continue to stop pucks at 83.2, now will the team continue to shoot at 5.9% at evens. So if you wanted a willy wonka golden ticket in your chocolatey bar of Oilers shit, there it is: they've been massively unlucky.
That said, the game last night was a reflection of all the above statistics. Goaltending stanky like the corpse of Dubnyk's NHL career, awful even strength defence, and percentages more appropriate for a C peewee team. We started from the bottom and now my whole team fucking here: the bottom, again, amazingly, unfeasibly.
We are in the abyss of infinite awful. The chasm of the continuous rebuild. The 7th level of boys on the bus hell.
And the game the game, surely there was a game. Justin Schultz and Petry took turns looking lost like little girls, and Scrivens shoved it up the backside of his supporters. Scrivens especially was rotten, and while he probably didn't have much of a chance on 50% of the goals, 50% less goals would have possibly given the Oilers a win. I will say absolutely that I haven't given up on either Oilers goaltender yet, evidenced by numbers like:
@BruceMcCurdyIn retrospect to his start:
Scrivens was .900 or better in 27 of 36 starts last year. His WORST (full) game all year was .838.
@BruceMcCurdyConclusions after the hop.
Ben Scrivens comes by his .800 save percentage honestly. By game: .808, .800, .793. An unnerving start for#Oil fans
Labels:
2014-2015,
Arizona Coyotes,
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Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Edmonton Oilers Postgame 3: Oil City Burning
This is nuclear waste on fire, which is an analogy of how the Oilers played last night. |
Eakins said the right things, had the right pedigree, and the Oilogosphere roundly praised the move. Over the course of a flaming-hearse-launching-off-a-cliff 2013 season, my needle of appreciation went from "approval" to "skeptical". In the seasonal intermission it rebounded slightly to "cautiously optimistic". Then we had decisions to keep Will "Hack and Whack" Acton, and demote Martin "Corsi Masher" Marincin. Both were fairly inexplicable at the time, sort of like the design of single ply toilet paper. I could handle Acton being the 13th forward, since it should translate to a couple dozen games at max, and less once they realize he can't pass.
And then the needle finally edged towards "fuck", as in the way you swear when the realization dawns that you bought a shiny new sports car with a damaged, rusty 4 cylinder under the hood. The last little push I needed was the decision to healthy scratch Jeff Petry before last night's game. Here's his quote on this:
Petey hasn’t had a training camp. His game’s coming, and he continues to get better; we’re encouraged by that. But when we looked at the makeup of our D we need a couple of guys in there for power play. We’ve had a defenceman sitting around not playing; we want to get him in. When you started going to the pieces that you need in your lineup, when it comes to special teams, certain matchups, it ended up being Petey. Now I highly doubt it would have been Petey if Petey would have had a training camp and wasn’t just that little bit behind right now. We’re encouraged by Petey’s rehab, his commitment to getting better, commitment to getting up to speed. It’s a hard decision but at the same time it just made sense across the board.Let's digitally dissect this, shall we?
1) Petey hasn’t had a training camp. - You know who else didn't have a training camp? Nikita Nikitin. Is he playing better than Petry? I don't know ANYONE who would say that.
2) But when we looked at the makeup of our D we need a couple of guys in there for power play. - As anyone can understand, you spend way more time 5v5 and PKing, and really good PKing is the same as a good PP. How effective is Brad Hunt on the PK exactly? Or 5v5 for that matter?
3) It’s a hard decision but at the same time it just made sense across the board. - This is a guy who preached puck possession, coaching on a team that made analytics hires, all in the name of the almighty Corsi. And yet, seems to disregard the fact that the defenceman he's scratching is also our best possession defenceman. Why hire analytics guys if you won't listen to their advice? Forget Corsi, has Brad Hunt looked effective in his own zone to ANYBODY? I dare say not.
That's a lot of wind up for an actual game, a 1-6 cluster-puck which went something like this:
A couple of players after the hop.
Labels:
2014-2015,
Edmonton Oilers,
Los Angeles Kings,
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Sunday, October 12, 2014
Edmonton Oilers Postgame 2: The Tale of Two Flippers
79.1 Hand Pass - A player shall be permitted to stop or “bat” a puck in the air with his open hand, or push it along the ice with his hand, and the play shall not be stopped unless, in the opinion of the Referee, he has directed the puck to a teammate. |
The game teetered off the rails thenceforth, as a cacophony of dumb penalties, bad defensive decisions, and a generally disjointed Oilers attack kept the oil drops anchored in their own end. Ultimately they got a Bettman point, and were a carnival ride away from another, but there is no way Eakins can be happy with the overall game the Oilers played tonight. No matter which team you are playing, taking 14 straight PP minutes from 4:48 in the 2nd to 6:20 in the 3rd isn't going to lend itself to a lot of success. Aside from obviously helping the Nux pot 2 PPGs, it also nullifies the attack and kills hustle and flow.
The second flipper in the title I'm alluding to is the flippers that dropped off Mr. Hopkins hand-model hands, and the knuckle exchange that materialized afterwards (Nugers first). It was a surprisingly feisty tilt with Hamhuis, and the scene showed, I think, three things:
- Hamhuis is a wussy: listed at 6'1" 210, he averages 0.66 PIMs per game, and you probably didn't need me to tell you that he spends more time in the cologne aisle than inside a boxing ring. It makes his posturing with a skinny skill forward a decade his junior look somewhat comical. At least he can puck.
- Hopkins is growing up. He said to Dan "Puff Pastry" Hamhuis that he could see right through Hamhuis' tough-guy posturing. I like Hopkins standing up for himself, and the cross-eyed crazy inside me kind of liked Benoit burying Matthias into the boards moments later (see point 3).
- Team toughness is up a peg this year: The kids are meaner, the wings are bigger, and let's hope this stops the hopeless Edmonton scribes screaming for Nuclear option goons. Which reminds me, Gazdic is set to draw back into the roster...
The final thing I want to touch on is our fucking rotten defencemen. One half of every pair is looking inept to start the year. Nikitin, Hunt, and Ference are all various degrees of charming - you've got a Russian with a name like a bond villain, a gap tooth smurf/J15 missile system hybrid, and Captain Oilers himself. They also are remarkably similar in terms of the amount of time they tend to spend in their own zone. They were the bottom 3 Dmen on the night for the CorsiFor% and by the eye test, a different Oilers Defenceman ghost of the past.
- Brad Hunt = Marc Andre Bergeron: Booming shot, not the best skater, undersized. Hey good for him he got his first NHL goal, but count me out on a Dman who can't skate well and is undersized. Bergeron, by the way, plays for Zurich in the Swiss-A league.
- Nikita Nikitin = Ryan Whitney: Both big, smooth skaters, and supposedly puck movers. Both overpaid for most of their careers. He's been positively terrible almost from the start. Oh, and lucky us, was 9 seconds short of the most Oiler icetime on the night (J.Schultz had 22:29).
- Andrew Ference = Late Stage Steve Staios: No, it's not a cancer, but it might as well be since Andrew has infiltrated Oilers hearts everywhere (including the coach and management). He doesn't pass that well, doesn't defend that well, isn't fast. What exactly does Andrew Ference do well? Oh yea, take selfies of working out. He does look incredibly fit. Side note: Steve Staios was an excellent defender for the Oilers until his flesh bag began to inevitably decay.
Martin Marincin is in the minors, in case you missed that.
Conclusion after the hop.
Labels:
2014-2015,
Edmonton Oilers,
Postgame,
Vancouver Canucks
Friday, October 10, 2014
Edmonton Oilers Postgame 1: Jerseygate
Starting with the obvious, the Oilers almost completely dominated the Flames in the possession game. The shot attempts were 75 to 39 for Edmonton, and aside from a nearly even third period the Oilers looked generally like a much better team. Not that it was all good, obviously. The 4 EV goals against speak to a team that still struggles with fundamental defensive deficiencies. The D core didn't look in synch with their goaltender, and some key assignments were missed. All in all, not worthy of $260 of that guy's hard earned dirty-oil-rig-dollars. If you want a silver lining, the Calgary Flames are paying DERYK ENGELLAND to play defence on an NHL team! Engelland had a lofty CF% of 16.3% (which means 83.7% of the shot attempts while he was on the ice were against his goalie).
The Good:
- Naheel Yakupof - Despite only getting ~14 minutes of ice, I thought Nail played an incredibly smart game. He constantly made good decisions to *not* force the puck into stupid spots on the ice. He looped, pivoted, and danced to find smart outlets and he had some nice Yak's Touch Pass Magic™ on the first PP goal.
- Jeff Petry - Quickly reminded us why he was last years best Dman. Unlike Schultz, he actually skates the puck into the offensive zone (seriously Justin, why do you stop behind the net every time?). Aside from one eyelid-twitching pass he made in the third (tape to tape with a Flame), he's the one guy you see drives play positively for the Oilers. Should have had J.Schultz's EV mins.
- Puck possesion - The Oilers owned the biscuit for most of the night, and you could see that when the Oilers put their head down, they were a clear cut above the Flames. Granted it's possibly the NHL McDavid destination, but still encouraging. Probably because I still think the Oilers can pass better than they did.
- The top line - Here are the three throat noises that describe their performance: pffbblt. Hrmmph. Blechh. Y'know, they didn't play terrible (hence why they aren't in The Ugly section below), but they were a combined -6, and didn't dominate play as much as they should. Their entries and cycle game was lacking, and aside from an Eberle solo-generated pipe clanger, I was underwhelmed to the extreme. They are going to be better, folks.
- Justin Schultz - I really don't understand how this guy lead the Oilers in overall ice time by almost 3 minutes. He's not currently at performance level befitting a first pairing defenceman. He may never be. Specifically, he wasn't physical enough, didn't skate the puck out of the D zone enough. It's early, so maybe this mystical norris caliber, Coffey 2.0 is still lurking behind that petulant little face of his, but I'm really beginning to doubt it. He always looks so smug, doesn't he?
- Andrew Ference - This isn't really a knock on the guy. He really does exemplify leadership qualities, and pours his steaming guts onto the ice every game. The problem is that the Oilers are playing him when there are better defencemen on the team, right now, who should be playing his minutes. I have unlimited doubt that the Oilers would ever have the balls to say "Andrew, we're sorry, you just aren't good enough to be in the regular lineup." Unfortunately, I think that day is today.
- 4 EV goals against - Last years 23rd ranked 5v5 goals for team pumped 4 EV goals past a pretty good goaltender, and this was EXACTLY the trend that must be stopped for the Oilers to be successful this year. These weren't flipflop, jamjob, luck of the gods goals either. Missed assignments, brain cramps, and poor defensive intuition all lead to the goals. The Oilers will not survive if they remain this inept in their defensive zone coverage.
Take a deep breath. That's all you need to do. Let the hate flow out, and good vibes flow in. If last nights contest tells us anything, it's not going to be that bad this year.
Labels:
2014-2015,
Calgary Flames,
Edmonton Oilers,
Postgame
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