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Monday, October 27, 2014

Oilers Arrows: Part I


With the Oilers roughly 10% into the season, I felt like it was about time to evaluate the performance of each player on the team, and the direction they were trending. Without further ado, your 10% complete Edmonton Oilers (all numbers below are for 5v5):

Legend:
Status Quo:

Good Performance:

Bad Performance:

Check it out below the hop.



Andrew Ference has been one of my whipping boys from seasons start. By the eye test, I think he makes a lot of dubious decisions with the puck, mostly owing to him not having much of a biscuit-movers brain. The ability to move the puck is more than just the ability to make a clean, accurate pass, it's also about how the athlete dissects the chaos around him and attempts to apply order. Some are good at those natural assessments, and others - like Ference - can struggle with those snap decisions.

In terms of numbers, considering his poor zone starts, his puck possession numbers are OK, but as you can see 2/3rds of the goals while on the ice have been bulging his own twine.

Current Performance
Trending


I think for the most part we've seen that Pouliot can give you glimpses of a player that can do excellent things on and off of the puck. The problem is, he's not playing with the kind of consistency that is going to drive the kind of results (He's: 8gp 0-2-2 -4) that a 4M+ player should be producing. There have been several sharia law stone jobs that have robbed him of offence, so the snakebite anti-venom should arrive when the team starts getting a bit more puck luck (as in the Carolina game).

Working in Benoit's favour are a couple of things. First of all, Benoit and his linemates (Yak and Drai) will not shoot at a combined 2 for 37 (5%) for the rest of the season. Second, Pouliot has basically always been a 1.9+ P/60 guy (3 of the last 4 regular seasons) and he's also playing below his average time on ice for any of those years. Hence below I have his arrow trending up. For the Oilers sake, let's hope so.

Current Performance
Trending


Boyd Gordon has played excellent hockey for the Oilers so far, full stop. Seriously, look at that offensive zone start: his line is getting buried worse than war-crime-corpses. It's not just his zone start either, it's his quality of competition. The Stamkos', the Ovechkin's, the Sedin's of the world, and he's still sawing off corsi, goals, and faceoffs.

It's impressive, honestly, and I see no reason that he won't be able to continue at this level of performance.

Current Performance
Trending


David Perron has looked good so far this season, and it's a curious story the numbers tell. First, his 0-5-5 score line isn't very impressive, especially coming off a career high previously. His actual point scoring rate isn't that far off his career norms, but that 54% corsi combined with a 27% goals for is not a typical scenario. He's maintaining good puck possession (albeit with lots of starts in the O zone), but it's not translating to many pucks in the opposition net. Better goal tending and puck luck 5v5 should see his puck possession more closely match his goals for rate.

With bupkis in the goals scored column, I expect we will see his nasty french wrister rippling twine in the near future.

Current Performance
Trending


Jeff Petry is definitely an integral part of the Oilers playing sound even strength hockey. He is an excellent skater and passer, and has one of the best poke checks in the league. His grey matter decisions sometimes leave a bit to be desired - forced, awkward, and bad plays at times. Overall I feel he's more positive than negative, and his numbers somewhat bear that out. First of all, we see he's getting a decent amount of EV TOI (behind only Nikitin, Schultz, and Hall), and he's managed an excellent Corsi Rel even with ~42% offensive zone starts. Like most of the team, their early abysmal  play at evens gives him a whacky GF%.

I'd like to see more from Petry, but based on his current assignments (in terms of time and opposition), I see more of the same, which isn't such a bad thing.

Current Performance
Trending


I could probably copy and paste from the Gordon blurb except that Joensuu was more or less a complete mystery entering this season. His Corsi Rel is off the charts for a 4th line plugger who is playing against the toughest opposition with a similarly ludicrous zone start.

I entered the season with a lot of questions about the big freight-train Finlander, but not only has he answered them, he's made a believer out of me. Just don't ask him to do more.

Current Performance
Trending


Even after Eberle's previous-game 2-1-3 performance, there are still a couple of concerns: he's only had 14 shots in 7 games (below his 2.6/game he's had past two seasons), and he's losing the corsi battle a bit even with 61% zone starts. Just by mine own eye, he hasn't been quite as dynamic with the puck as we've seen in the past. Based on that past, he has a lot more to give, and I expect we will start seeing that soon with a bit of help from the so far elusive power play goal.

Current Performance
Trending


Justin "Jultz" Schultz is the kind of defender that tends to be extremely infuriating to watch. He has excellent mobility, a good stick, incredible offensive acumen, and ultimately, an incomplete defensive awareness. It's a classic case of a defender having most of which cannot be taught (sublime forward-caliber puck skills) but missing the essence of what an ultimate #1 defender is. Maybe he will figure it out, but at some point Oilers fans may have to console themselves with a #3 guy who is a stalwart on the PP. Sorry MacT, I still don't have a lot of faith in future Norris trophies clogging his trophy case. He's got the tools to get hardware, respect, and the #1 role and responsibility, but every game that dream seems to be a bit further away.

As far as the current season, I think he's played about as expected. He's facing middling opposition; Jultz didn't fare as well facing top opposition. You can see Eakins isn't pegging him as a true tough minutes guy based on his 64% zonestart. He's put up a couple offensive-minded goals, and he will probably live and die by the sword: as long as he generates lots of offence with his passing and shooting, he'll get the minutes.

Current Performance
Trending

Leon looks like an NHL player, both in terms of his on-ice physical stature and his off-ice bearing. Like I've stated in the past, the key to Leon is whether he also looks like a bonafide top-6 NHLer. Now, in my humble opinion, he's definitely not a top 6 guy. Working for him: he has a lot of improving to do simply from playing games and gaining experience. That kind of improvement is probably the most rapid NHL level improvement a player could ever undergo. Where Leon is today is probably going to be a far cry from where he ends the season, assuming he isn't given a one way ticket to the land of fuzzy mustaches and charter buses.

He's been thrust into the #2C slot (although by minutes he's received about the same even strength time as Boyd Gordon), and it's been a fairly predictable, and meager input into the Oilers overall success so far. First of all, he's been given fairly exclusive offensive zone starts, and his 1.37 P/60 isn't a number befitting a top 6 guy (should vary around 2.0 and up). The current trend is definitely positive: the first 4 games he had 5 shots, the last 4 he had 10. he scored his first goal a game after an 18 year old Taylor Hall did, and by all accounts he's moving those German Schlittschuhe's just a touch faster these days.

Current Performance
Trending


I'm a big fan of short stuff Arcobello. He plays a smart game for the most part, and has much better offensive instincts than I think many would give him credit for. Unfortunately after starting the season 4gp 2-1-3 +2, his scoring and ice time has fallen off a cliff. His ice times have been ~15,~15,~19,~23 minutes from the first 4 games to ~16,~12,~13,~12, in that order. If you were drawing a graph, the fat kid in on the right side of the see-saw.

Ultimately this is why I'm trending him down. Gordon is playing great, Hopkins started scoring, and Leon may start surging. It doesn't leave a lot of minutes for the little guy, but I still believe he can hit 0.4 P/Game at least.

Current Performance
Trending


A couple of curiosities in Fayne's numbers. One, Eakins has given him a balanced zone start, indicating he's not quite comfortable with him in a shutdown role. This may be due to Fayne being a bit tentative, and off sort of like Zellwegger's recent facelift: you couldn't put your finger on it, but it wasn't as good as you expected. Recently (see trending arrow below), Fayne has been given the tougher assignments, and after receiving a reduced workload in the middle of the first 8 games, his TOI numbers are up again.

He seems like the sort of guy who thrives on tougher challenges, and partnered with Marincin, I expect his comfort, success, and output to increase as we move forward.

Current Performance
Trending


You need to temper expectations with any 22 year old defenceman: he's probably played more hours of NHL video games than played actual NHL minutes. Regardless, I think by everyone's eye Marincin has performed as well this year as he did last, although his slightly tougher zone start and his definitely elevated QoC (it's #1 by a mile on the Oilers D) have contributed to his uncharacteristically low Corsi Rel.

In my mind he's probably the best puck possession defenceman on the Oilers in terms of maintaining possession while transitioning and retrieving it from his own zone, and that number should improve. Otherwise, more of the same will do the Oil-powered copper and blue organism good.

Current Performance
Trending


Hendricks rounds out the trio of up-arrows inhabiting the Oilers "fourth" line, and it's just more of the same: cotton candy gushing out my mouth in praise of the much and grind job our "goons" are laying on the princes and playboys of the opposing teams.

As above, note the triple-eye-blinking zone start, and the reasonable Corsi and goals against. It's a good package the three are bringing, and I've yet to see Hendricks do something that is uncharacteristic, hence the blue "carry on" in the trending below.

Current Performance
Trending


Nail has been an incredibly improved player based on my squishy vision bulbs, but his numbers - fancy or otherwise - aren't painting that kind of picture. One thing not mentioned here which is a big part of this is his PDO (on ice save + on ice shooting percentages). Leon, Purcell, Yak, Perron, and Benoit are all below 940, which indicates a serious lack of puck luck so far (and shoddy goaltending). It should be an addendum to all of those listed players, but especially for Yak, who has such bad numbers: awful Corsi Rel, terrible GF%, and almost 3/4rths of his shifts in the offensive zone.

Even with that said, I think I'm going to let my eyeballs influence his "Current Performance" arrow, and I'm going to say the visible improvements plus the awful numbers have given me a mediocre status quo rating. As with most regular players drowning with a terrible PDO, there isn't much else to do except get off the ocean floor and float to the surface.

Current Performance
Trending

If you look above, Nikitin's numbers are fine across the board. To my eye, he's been sloppy, made eastern-european-ghetto-bad passes, and against what I would deem middling opposition. Thankfully, I think his level of play has climbed slowly as the season has progressed (three straight wins might just give me that impression though). Whether it's due to the stabilizing presence of a shutdown duo in Martin and Mark or Nikki nine-doors finding his groove, I'm not sure.

We should shake the magic 8-ball in a few weeks and see if that question gets answered, along with "is he any good?".

Reply hazy try again

Current Performance
Trending

Hoppy has been out most prolific scorer in terms of per minute of ice time, and I think it's a hugely positive thing for a guy who is an elite passer to start off his season burying the biscuit like a dog bone in soft earth. he's made affirmative, aggressive choices with the puck, and he has only recorded a single assist. he's shooting 27%+ right now, so don't expect a 40 goal season from Ryan just yet, but at least you know he's going to add a couple dozen assists minimum to his goal total.

He's getting a offence zone push, and sawing off Corgis with tough opposition, which he's done in the past. Overall a solid, dependable performance that I see continuing.

Current Performance
Trending

Hall is the engine that drives the Oilers success for the most part. He's one of the few Oilers with a positive GF ratio, and has played an absolute ish-ton of even strength minutes against a combination of stalwart checking lines and the oppositions superpredators. His PDO is 1030, which makes my trending:up arrow below a dubious decision by the odds.

What can I say, Hall has another gear that he hasn't even shown yet. All three of the kid line do, really. So here's my (not so) bold prediction: we will see a better Taylor Hall yet this season: he's shooting more than ever, and there is a burning determination in his eyes that hasn't quite been rewarded properly yet.

Current Performance
Trending


Teddy hasn't scored an even strength goal yet, and his 1.5 shots a game is well below his recent career averages. Combined with good Corsi, bad GF%, and a serious offensive zone push, we get the mixed bag of results that Purcell has delivered so far. He's been a good, bad, a bit of invisible at times, and ultimately I think we've received a top 9 player with some flaws, and he will continue to play like a top 9 player with some flaws.

Hopefully his shot rates will go up (equals goals), and his GF rates will improve (make him a bit more pleasing to the hockey memory). If so, I see more of the same moving forward. Which, depending on your view of a third liners impact, could be good, could be bad.

Current Performance
Trending


Scrivens was named second star of the week so his trending arrow should be somewhat obvious below. Unfortunately he had an extremely rocky beginning to the year, and his 0.882 save percentage would not be considered good in any league past Peewee B.
But really, he's been light-years better between the pipes, and based on previous track record there is no reason to think he will fall back into the haunted valley of failed goalies (where Jim Carrey sits on his throne of smelly goalie pads).

Current Performance
Trending

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